Despite risks, fall of Assad in Syria a net gain for Israel
An armed woman flashes the V for victory sign as Syrian Kurds celebrate the fall of capital Damascus to anti-government fighters, in the city of Qamishli on Dec. 8, 2024. Photo by Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images.
by Yaakov Lappin
(JNS) — The collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime creates new uncertainties, yet from an Israeli security perspective represents a net strategic gain.
Iran invested tens of billions of dollars and over a decade of effort into smuggling advanced weaponry and deploying tens of thousands of Shi’ite militia operatives in Syria. Those efforts have now been wasted.
After losing its influence in Gaza and Lebanon due to Israel’s military achievements against Hamas and Hezbollah, Assad’s collapse in Syria has delivered another major defeat to Iran’s regional aspirations.
The Assad regime was one of the central pillars of Iran’s plan to achieve regional hegemony, and for positioning its axis in a manner intended to lead to Israel’s collapse.
The bridge Iran constructed to link itself to the Mediterranean and Israel’s northern doorstep has collapsed. The scope of Iran’s loss in Syria, in terms of money, arms, time and effort, cannot be overstated. Iran’s regional stance, already deteriorating, has now been further weakened.
The Assad regime was an integral part of an Iranian “ring of fire” that would encircle the Jewish state with heavily armed proxy terror armies. The ring of fire vision was pioneered by the late Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. It was one of the factors that turned the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis into the most capable and dangerous of Israel’s adversaries.
Assad’s downfall is a direct knock-on effect from the devastating blows that Iran’s main regional proxy, Hezbollah, suffered in neighboring Lebanon. Israeli aerial and ground operations left Hezbollah severely weakened. The Sunni rebels in neighboring Syria saw their chance and took it.
Assad lacked capable allies — Hezbollah could not send in ground reinforcements from Lebanon like it did during the civil war, Russia is preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine and Iran is facing increasing regional isolation.
On the ground, U.S.-aligned Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces have moved into Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, while the Israeli Air Force repeatedly struck critical border crossing points between Syria and Lebanon. This means that Iran’s ground corridor — meant to allow the seamless passage of weapons and personnel from Iran and Iraq from the east, into Syria and Lebanon, has crumbled.
As Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno, a former senior officer in the IDF’s Human Intelligence Unit 504, told JNS on Dec. 1: “The Assad regime allowed Syria to be the Philadelphi Corridor [the Gaza area bordering Sinai, used to smuggle weapons] on steroids.” He added that many of the weapons Hezbollah used against Israel in the recent war came from Syria.
The Syrian route was essential for Iran’s weapons pipeline to Hezbollah. But Tehran’s entrenchment in Syria also included setting up weapons production centers on Syrian soil, which nourished not only Hezbollah but also tens of thousands of Shi’ite militiamen stationed in Syria.
Iran attempted civilian, religious and cultural entrenchment in Syria, promoting ethnic cleansing of Sunni communities, while aiming to secure a loyal demographic Alawite and Shi’ite foothold. With Assad’s fall, these extensive and costly efforts have come to nothing.
This does not mean all is now quiet on the Syrian front. The umbrella Syrian coalition of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and formerly tied to Al Qaeda under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, has emerged as the dominant Sunni insurgent force. The Syrian National Army — a nationalist rebel coalition backed by Turkey — is another major player on the ground.
Israel will have to monitor their activities closely. Yet, when stacked against the capabilities of the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis, these Sunni rebels represent a far weaker force, with fewer advanced capabilities and a limited focus that remains largely confined to Syrian territory, at least for the near future.
According to multiple international media reports, Israel has not waited for strategic weapons in Syria to fall into uncertain hands. On Dec. 5, Israel’s Army Radio, citing reports from Syria, stated that Israel had conducted airstrikes southeast of Aleppo while the area was still under Assad’s control.
Such strikes likely targeted precise missile or chemical weapon production sites affiliated with Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center, which Iran had co-opted to develop advanced munitions on Syrian soil.
By reportedly preemptively neutralizing these strategic threats, Israel ensured that the collapse of the Assad regime would not lead to the proliferation of dangerous weapons.
Along the border with Syria, the Israel Defense Forces took measured steps to ensure security. The IDF said on Dec. 8 that “in accordance with the situational assessment following the recent events in Syria, including the entry of armed personnel into the buffer zone, the IDF has deployed forces in the buffer zone and in several other places necessary for its defense, to ensure the safety of the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel. We emphasize that the IDF is not interfering with the internal events in Syria. The IDF will continue to operate as long as necessary in order to preserve the buffer zone and defend Israel and its civilians.”
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He is the in-house analyst at the Miryam Institute; a research associate at the Alma Research and Education Center; and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He is a frequent guest commentator on international television news networks, including Sky News and i24 News. Lappin is the author of Virtual Caliphate: Exposing the Islamist State on the Internet. Follow him at: www.patreon.com/yaakovlappin.
